Aging Autocrats, Familiar Tactics: A Pattern of Power Play in Africa

The recent actions of aging leaders in Africa to solidify their grip on power may seem novel, but a closer look reveals a pattern that’s all too familiar. Paul Biya in Cameroon, Yoweri Museveni in Uganda, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo in Equatorial Guinea, and Emmerson Mnangagwa in Zimbabwe are employing tactics reminiscent of their predecessors to cling to power.

These leaders have built networks of loyal allies over the years, allowing them to maintain control even as they grow older. Biya’s 44-year tenure has seen him construct a stable leadership circle that keeps the government running despite his lengthy absences. He currently spends two and a half months in Geneva, Switzerland, issuing decrees and making personnel decisions from abroad. His spokesperson insists on his good health, but there are whispers of treatment and potential succession battles.

The dynamics at play here aren’t new; they’re simply the latest iteration of an old playbook. These autocrats have mastered the art of staying in power by manipulating the system to their advantage. Biya’s Cameroon is a prime example: his loyal leadership circle may keep the government running smoothly, but it also stifles momentum for reform.

In Uganda, Museveni’s succession remains unresolved, with his son Muhoozi Kainerugaba increasingly emerging as a prominent figure. Analysts warn that this could lead to rivalry among elites, potentially resulting in major disruptions – even a military coup. The same pattern is unfolding in Equatorial Guinea, where Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo appears to be transferring power to his son, Teodorin.

In June, he announced the resignation of the entire government on behalf of his father, a move observers interpreted as a sign that the younger Obiang is gradually becoming the public face of state authority. Meanwhile in Zimbabwe, Emmerson Mnangagwa has amended the constitution to make it even less likely that he’ll be voted out of office. The changes extend the terms of parliament and the president from five to seven years, eliminating direct presidential elections – a move widely criticized as undemocratic.

This situation is precarious for people living under these regimes, particularly in countries like Cameroon and Uganda where succession battles are brewing. The potential for instability looms large if these leaders don’t address the inevitable question of who comes next.

African countries have witnessed similar power struggles in the past – take Chad in 2021, where President Idriss Deby was killed and his son took power. The same could happen here if these leaders don’t begin to consider a peaceful transfer of power.

In the short term, it’s unlikely that significant changes will be made. However, as African countries continue down this path, it’s essential to acknowledge that the status quo is unsustainable. These aging autocrats must start thinking about their legacies and the future they want to leave behind – one where democratic principles are upheld and the people have a genuine say in who leads them.

As the world watches these power struggles unfold, it’s crucial not to forget the human cost of these tactics. The people living under these regimes deserve more than just the promise of stability; they deserve leaders who put their interests first and prioritize democracy above all else.